Just when you thought we couldn't possibly see anymore spring snowfall events in the Denver area (especially following a weekend of 75-80 degree temperatures)... it's going to happen again... this time on May 1st.
A deep and powerful low pressure trough is diving southward toward Colorado as we speak, bringing with it another blast of unseasonably cold air and upslope precipitation. Denver is going to see snow fall for most of the day Wednesday, but I don't think the city will receive nearly as much snow accumulation as what the National Weather Service and other outlets are predicting (more on that below).
Several days of warm and sunny weather concluded yesterday with a high of 80F in Denver, before an initial cold front ahead of the main system moved through early this morning, bringing much cooler weather today (temps are currently in the mid to upper 50's across the metro area). The cold front moved through earlier than what models were forecasting, making me think the main cold front will reach our area earlier tonight as well, meaning perhaps an earlier onset of snowfall after precipitation starts out as rain.
This system is going to produce substantial precipitation once again for Northern Colorado, which is nothing but good news as our spring weather pattern continues to put a dent in the drought (excluding Southern Colorado, which has been MUCH drier than Northern Colorado this spring). As for snowfall, the Front Range foothills and mountains, as well as the northern I-25 corridor from Ft. Collins to Cheyenne, should receive the heaviest amounts, with up to a foot possible in the foothills, and up to 20" possible for areas in Rocky Mountain National Park, the Cameron Pass region, and the Indian Peaks. Even though the areas along and east of the Continental Divide will be favored for upslope snow, a band of heavy snow associated with the system will set up across Northern Colorado, providing good snowfall totals for areas west of the Divide as well, such as the Park Range/Steamboat, Gore Range, Vail, and Summit County.
In Denver, the NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for 4-7" of snow in the city proper, but I believe we have too many factors working against us to see this much snow. The best snow-producing conditions are going to exist during the daytime hours tomorrow, but that doesn't mean we'll see good snow-accumulation conditions, despite what the models are showing. The surface is going to be very warm following several days of 70+ degree temperatures, and it's also May 1st tomorrow, meaning of course that solar radiation is very strong at this time of year... because of this, I do not think we will see much accumulation during the daytime hours, even though temperatures will be near freezing at daybreak and gradually falling into the upper 20's by the afternoon (yes, WAY below average for the first of May).
I do think the cold front and subsequent changeover to snow will occur earlier than what models are forecasting, though, likely in the overnight hours... so I think there's a good chance Denver could wake up to 2-3" of wet snow by daybreak, but given the recent warmth and marginal freezing temps at the start of the event, I'm willing to bet the roads will remain snow-free in the city. Once the sun is up, however, I think the warm surface and strong solar radiation will prevent much snow from accumulating. The only way I really see these factors being overcome is if a band of very heavy snow sets up over Denver, and heavy snowfall rates are able to accumulate snow faster than surface conditions are able to melt the snow, and while this is possible, I'm not willing to bet on it given the unpredictable nature of these heavy snow bands in spring time snow events such as this (where snowfall accumulations can vary significantly over short distances).
Looking outside of Denver, I do think that areas on the western side of the metro area, at slightly higher elevations, could see noticeably more snowfall than Denver, due in part to enhanced precipitation rates from the upslope effect of higher terrain, as well as relatively less surface heating from being farther removed from the urban heat island effect of central Denver, where more concrete surfaces can trap and hold more heat, when compared to grassy surfaces (it's a localized effect, but can sometimes make a difference in these type of situations).
I believe Denver will see 2-4" of snow overall (most occurring overnight tonight, and perhaps a little more in the late afternoon/evening hours tomorrow), and even this may be a little high, while I'm more confident western metro cities from Boulder to Arvada to Golden will see 4-8". I also think Ft. Collins will fall into the 4-8" range (maybe on the lower end of the range, though), as the region close to the Wyoming border will see the colder air and precipitation move in sooner tonight, and heavier bands of snow could set up overnight as well. In the foothills west of the metro area and up to the Continental Divide, 8-15" will be possible, especially above 7,000 ft., and I wouldn't be surprised to see some totals in the 18-24" range in Rocky Mountain National Park.
Snowfall should wind down tomorrow evening, and depending on how quickly the skies clear, record low temperatures will be in jeopardy once again (I believe the record low for the date in Denver is around 22-23F). Denver's all time record low for the month of May is 19F, and it is not out of the question we could reach this mark, although I think we'll come up a few degrees shy of that mark. Sunshine returns on Thursday, quickly melting whatever snow is on the ground in Denver, but temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 40's... still about 20 degrees below average.
Northerly flow will continue through the weekend as the low pressure system stalls to the east of us, so slightly unsettled and chilly weather will continue... with highs in Denver topping out in the mid to upper 50's this weekend, with scattered clouds and rain chances possible, along with some snow showers in the mountains. Models are not in great agreement about this weekend in regards to precipitation, though, so all I can say for now is that we might see some rain, or even some thunderstorm chances, but I am pretty confident that the metro area will not see snow this weekend.
We have had a remarkable spring in terms of snowfall this year, which has many people complaining of course, but we need to put things in perspective... last spring was a disaster, with almost no snow and precipitation, and as a result we quickly fell into a drought situation and suffered through a devastating wildfire season. For most of the winter, the drought continued, and the situation heading into the spring did not look good for our snowpack or our water resources... this spring has basically been a miracle for northern Colorado, with our mountain snowpack (in northern and central CO at least) rebounding to near normal for this time of year (less than peak average, but normal for late April), after being well below normal all winter long, and the amount of moisture Denver and the Front Range have received in March and especially April have been enough to put a huge dent into our drought, and will help replenish our water resources and lower our wildfire danger this summer... not to mention, it will "green up" the landscape this spring and into early/mid summer. So keep these things in mind if/when you catch yourself complaining about the snow tomorrow... more spring snow just means that much better of a summer.
Colorado Weather Blog
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Monday, April 29, 2013
Quick Monday Morning Update
Last night's forecast is still on track, with temperatures approaching 80F under clear skies today, before a strong system brings a chance of snow to the region on Wednesday. The timing of the cold air punch doesn't look ideal for Denver to receive much accumulation, however... I think snow will fall, but temperatures will be near to above freezing during the day Wednesday for much of the event, which combined with a high sun angle at this time of year, won't be conducive for accumulation. The foothills and mountains could receive more significant totals, however.
I made a post on my Facebook page this morning regarding May snowfall in Denver (since Wed is May 1st), and wanted to repost it below. Also, here is a very interesting and informative article written by the NWS Denver/Boulder office about our pattern of spring storms this year.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/bou/showimages/Explanation_for_%20Recent_Big_Snowfalls.pdf
Post about May snowfall...
Regarding the forecast for snow on May 1st... snow in May in Denver is not unusual. In fact, the city averages 1.7" of the white stuff in May, and saw accumulating snowfall in May in 2010 and 2011. Significant snow events in May are rare in Denver, but they have happened before... the biggest single storm snow total ever in May was 12.4" in 1978.
The cold air punch for our upcoming storm is looking a little weaker this morning, so I don't think we'll see much accumulation from this storm... but do expect snow to fall during the day Wednesday, and much colder temperatures after highs push 80F today.
I made a post on my Facebook page this morning regarding May snowfall in Denver (since Wed is May 1st), and wanted to repost it below. Also, here is a very interesting and informative article written by the NWS Denver/Boulder office about our pattern of spring storms this year.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/bou/showimages/Explanation_for_%20Recent_Big_Snowfalls.pdf
Post about May snowfall...
Regarding the forecast for snow on May 1st... snow in May in Denver is not unusual. In fact, the city averages 1.7" of the white stuff in May, and saw accumulating snowfall in May in 2010 and 2011. Significant snow events in May are rare in Denver, but they have happened before... the biggest single storm snow total ever in May was 12.4" in 1978.
The cold air punch for our upcoming storm is looking a little weaker this morning, so I don't think we'll see much accumulation from this storm... but do expect snow to fall during the day Wednesday, and much colder temperatures after highs push 80F today.
Sunday, April 28, 2013
Colorado enjoys warm temperatures, sunny skies; but once again, changes (yes, SNOW) are looming
Sorry for the short updates, but the end of the semester has left me little time with finals coming up, school projects, new job, etc.
We've (finally) enjoyed our warmest stretch of weather so far this season in Colorado, with bluebird skies and temperatures well into the 70's on both Saturday and Sunday. We'll have one more day of nice, mild weather on Monday, with highs likely reaching 80 for many parts of the metro area.
However, just when you thought we couldn't possibly get anymore spring snowfall in the Denver area... it's going to happen again, and on May 1st. Tuesday night, a deep trough of low pressure and associated strong upper level jet will dip south into Colorado, bringing a surge of colder air and precipitation behind it, mainly affecting eastern Colorado along and east of the Continental Divide. A strong cold front associated with the low pressure system will move through on Tuesday afternoon/evening, bringing a quick drop in temperatures, gusty winds, and the onset of precipitation beginning as rain, then changing over to snow at night (how many times have we seen this scenario this spring?).
A few models are indicating 1-2" of precipitation across the Front Range (from the metro area to the Continental Divide), which is awesome news, as our parade of spring storms continue to put a damper on the drought. We are getting into May, and following a stretch of very warm weather, so I still don't think we'll see significant snow accumulations in Denver like we've seen with recent storms, but I do think a few inches of wet snow overnight are very possible... mostly on grassy surfaces, but possibly creating slick roads by daybreak. The foothills and mountains could see significant accumulations, however, with up to a foot possible... great news for water resources, snowpack, and for Loveland and A-Basin, which are still open and enjoying excellent late season skiing conditions.
Temperatures on the first day of May (Wednesday) will be 30+ degrees below average in Denver, and unfortunately for those of you who were spoiled by this weekend's weather, below normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as surges of cooler air and moisture from the north continue to pool into Colorado. By late this week and into next weekend, we'll likely see high temperatures in the 50's in Denver, which is warmer than Wednesday, but still pretty chilly for early May, as weak disturbances continue to move through, possibly bringing a few rain showers to the metro area, but more likely bringing periodic snow showers to the mountains, which certainly wouldn't be a bad thing for Loveland's closing weekend!
We've (finally) enjoyed our warmest stretch of weather so far this season in Colorado, with bluebird skies and temperatures well into the 70's on both Saturday and Sunday. We'll have one more day of nice, mild weather on Monday, with highs likely reaching 80 for many parts of the metro area.
However, just when you thought we couldn't possibly get anymore spring snowfall in the Denver area... it's going to happen again, and on May 1st. Tuesday night, a deep trough of low pressure and associated strong upper level jet will dip south into Colorado, bringing a surge of colder air and precipitation behind it, mainly affecting eastern Colorado along and east of the Continental Divide. A strong cold front associated with the low pressure system will move through on Tuesday afternoon/evening, bringing a quick drop in temperatures, gusty winds, and the onset of precipitation beginning as rain, then changing over to snow at night (how many times have we seen this scenario this spring?).
A few models are indicating 1-2" of precipitation across the Front Range (from the metro area to the Continental Divide), which is awesome news, as our parade of spring storms continue to put a damper on the drought. We are getting into May, and following a stretch of very warm weather, so I still don't think we'll see significant snow accumulations in Denver like we've seen with recent storms, but I do think a few inches of wet snow overnight are very possible... mostly on grassy surfaces, but possibly creating slick roads by daybreak. The foothills and mountains could see significant accumulations, however, with up to a foot possible... great news for water resources, snowpack, and for Loveland and A-Basin, which are still open and enjoying excellent late season skiing conditions.
Temperatures on the first day of May (Wednesday) will be 30+ degrees below average in Denver, and unfortunately for those of you who were spoiled by this weekend's weather, below normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as surges of cooler air and moisture from the north continue to pool into Colorado. By late this week and into next weekend, we'll likely see high temperatures in the 50's in Denver, which is warmer than Wednesday, but still pretty chilly for early May, as weak disturbances continue to move through, possibly bringing a few rain showers to the metro area, but more likely bringing periodic snow showers to the mountains, which certainly wouldn't be a bad thing for Loveland's closing weekend!
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Warmer weather finally set to arrive
Another short update tonight...
A warm-up is finally on the way, though, along with sunshine. Highs tomorrow in Denver will be around 50... on Thursday and Friday, we'll be in the mid 60's... and on Saturday and Sunday we'll be in the upper 60's to low 70's.
From earlier Tuesday...
Mountain snowfall totals (estimates based on 12:1 snow to liquid ratio) from the latest storm include...
18" Buffalo Pass (Steamboat)
17" Arrow site (Indian Peaks)
15.5" University Camp (Indian Peaks)
15.5" Wild Basin (RMNP)
14.5" Berthoud Pass
13" A-Basin (official ski area report)
13" Bear Lake (RMNP)
11" Loveland Ski Area (official ski area report)
11" Copper Mountain
11" Elliott Ridge (Gore Range)
9.5" Cameron Pass
Also, the parade of spring storms has pushed the seasonal snowfall total in Denver up to 73.5" (average is 57.5"), which surpasses the big winter of 2006-2007, when 72.6" fell. While Denver's official weather records have changed locations over the years and aren't entirely reliable, as it now stands, 2012-2013 is officially the snowiest winter in Denver since 1991-1992! Pretty amazing considering how dry early to mid winter was.
Denver also set it's 4th record low temperature of April 2013 last night, when the temp fell to 21F just before midnight.
18" Buffalo Pass (Steamboat)
17" Arrow site (Indian Peaks)
15.5" University Camp (Indian Peaks)
15.5" Wild Basin (RMNP)
14.5" Berthoud Pass
13" A-Basin (official ski area report)
13" Bear Lake (RMNP)
11" Loveland Ski Area (official ski area report)
11" Copper Mountain
11" Elliott Ridge (Gore Range)
9.5" Cameron Pass
Also, the parade of spring storms has pushed the seasonal snowfall total in Denver up to 73.5" (average is 57.5"), which surpasses the big winter of 2006-2007, when 72.6" fell. While Denver's official weather records have changed locations over the years and aren't entirely reliable, as it now stands, 2012-2013 is officially the snowiest winter in Denver since 1991-1992! Pretty amazing considering how dry early to mid winter was.
Denver also set it's 4th record low temperature of April 2013 last night, when the temp fell to 21F just before midnight.
Monday, April 22, 2013
Another April storm bringing heavy snow to Denver once again... more seasonal weather to finally arrive later in the week
NWS radar image showing a band of heavy snow parked over the Denver area at 10:00 pm Monday night
Another extremely busy week at a crazy time of year has left me with little time to update the blog, so on nights like this, I will repost my shortened forecasts and updates that I post more frequently on the blog's Facebook page... especially since the weather pattern continues to be extremely active for Colorado.
Monday night update...
Impressive late season snow storm continues for much of Colorado. It's snowing very heavily in Denver right now, with a snow band currently parked over the area. Accumulations could pile up quickly at this rate, and I'm now expecting 4-7" for Denver by Tuesday morning when things wind down, and 6-10" for the southern and western parts of the metro area, including Boulder, Golden, Arvada, Littleton, and Highlands Ranch.
The mountains have and continue to be hit with heavy snow as well, with some SNOTEL sites indicating double digit totals in the last 24 hours (and it's not over yet)... heaviest snow so far has been in the Park Range (Steamboat) and Front Range, including the foothills, Berthoud Pass, the Indian Peaks, RMNP, and Cameron Pass. Loveland and A-Basin should ski very well tomorrow, although as evidenced by last weekend's tragedy on Loveland Pass, avalanche conditions continue to be less than ideal for backcountry skiers and snowboarders.
If you're tired of the cold and snow, then hang in there, because I have good news. Tomorrow will feature one last unseasonably cold day, but changes are on the way following a cold start to Wednesday morning. Temperatures warm into the low 50's on Wednesday in Denver (an improvement, but still chilly for late April), before shooting up to more seasonal levels on Thursday and beyond... by Saturday and Sunday, we could see highs reach the low 70's!
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Looking back at a busy week, including heavy snow and Colorado's deadliest avalanche in 50 years. Active weather pattern to continue
Excellent late season riding conditions at Loveland Ski Area
I haven't posted in a while due to a very busy time at school, along with night events and ski days, so it's time to catch up after an extremely active weak weather-wise. A series of spring storms brought a foot of snow to parts of Denver last Monday, boosted to the mountain snowpack significantly, and unfortunately, led to Colorado's deadliest avalanche in 50 years yesterday, up on Loveland Pass. I've been posting updates on my blogs facebook page throughout the past week, so I'll include a summary of those below (scroll down lower if you want to see the current forecast and summary)...
Monday April 15 (morning)...
Closing day (for most ski areas) was a big powder day across Colorado! Sat night/Sun morning totals include... 15" Beaver Creek... 14" Monarch... 13" Copper Mtn and Vail... 12" Loveland, Silverton, Aspen, Breck, Eldora... 11" Aspen Highlands... 10" Winter Park and Snowmass
Another round of heavy snow began last night in the mountains and continues today, with Loveland reporting an additional 8" on their morning snow report! Heaviest snow today will fall in the north, including Steamboat and the Front Range mountains... while Vail/Summit County should also do well. It's going to be an active week with more heavy snow likely on Wednesday.
For the foothills and plains... Heaviest snow through Tuesday morning will fall farther north, including the Ft. Collins area up to Cheyenne (6-10"), as well as the Front Range foothills from Nederland to Estes Park. Denver will be a little too far south of the action and will see just a mix of rain and snow showers today, with light accumulation possible overnight (colder air and more snow possible on Wed, though). Boulder will get more than Denver but less than Ft. Collins... likely in the 3-7" range.
Another round of heavy snow began last night in the mountains and continues today, with Loveland reporting an additional 8" on their morning snow report! Heaviest snow today will fall in the north, including Steamboat and the Front Range mountains... while Vail/Summit County should also do well. It's going to be an active week with more heavy snow likely on Wednesday.
For the foothills and plains... Heaviest snow through Tuesday morning will fall farther north, including the Ft. Collins area up to Cheyenne (6-10"), as well as the Front Range foothills from Nederland to Estes Park. Denver will be a little too far south of the action and will see just a mix of rain and snow showers today, with light accumulation possible overnight (colder air and more snow possible on Wed, though). Boulder will get more than Denver but less than Ft. Collins... likely in the 3-7" range.
Monday April 15 (afternoon)...
Well, missed that forecast for Denver. Heavy snow amounted to 7" in Boulder this morning while Denver had virtually nothing. However, the snow band dropped just far enough south this afternoon, and it has been snowing very heavily in Denver over the last 3 hours. Downtown we already have about 5" I'm guessing
Tuesday April 16...
Heavy snow yesterday afternoon/evening amounted to 10-15" (about a foot near downtown Denver) from central Denver to Boulder to Ft. Collins, with nearly two feet in Estes Park. Snow came to an end overnight, with fog and freezing drizzle hanging around this morning. A few snow showers possible this afternoon, then a surge of cold air and another round of snow arrive on Wednesday.
The mountains got slammed yesterday as well. 24 hour ski resort totals include 15" at Loveland and 12" at Winter Park. And since Saturday night... Loveland has seen 35" and Winter Park 29"! SNOTEL sites indicate many areas from Aspen to Vail/Summit and especially the Front Range mountains picked up 15-20" yesterday! It might be mid April, but these are the best skiing conditions of the season (for places that are still open anyways). The moisture is also great news for our depleted water sources, as well as for the upcoming wildfire season.
The mountains got slammed yesterday as well. 24 hour ski resort totals include 15" at Loveland and 12" at Winter Park. And since Saturday night... Loveland has seen 35" and Winter Park 29"! SNOTEL sites indicate many areas from Aspen to Vail/Summit and especially the Front Range mountains picked up 15-20" yesterday! It might be mid April, but these are the best skiing conditions of the season (for places that are still open anyways). The moisture is also great news for our depleted water sources, as well as for the upcoming wildfire season.
Wednesday April 17 (morning)...
Winter in April continues... believe it or not, more snow is on the way for Denver. Precipitation may start out as freezing drizzle overnight into Wednesday morning (enough to ice over your windshields), then the cold front passes through by mid morning, bringing falling temps (into the low-mid 20's by afternoon), snow, and wind...
Denver and Boulder should see 4-8", with 6-14" possible in the foothills and Palmer Divide, and lower amounts around Ft. Collins. With the sporadic nature of this springtime snow event, accumulations may vary widely across short distances, depending on where the heaviest bands set up.
Relatively warmer weather returns on Friday, but temperatures look to remain well below average for at least the next week.
Mountains will see moderate to heavy snow on Wednesday as well, and again on Friday night and Saturday, which is good news for the final weekend at Winter Park and Aspen Highlands, as well as at Copper Mtn and Vail, which both announced today that they are re-opening for the weekend!
Denver and Boulder should see 4-8", with 6-14" possible in the foothills and Palmer Divide, and lower amounts around Ft. Collins. With the sporadic nature of this springtime snow event, accumulations may vary widely across short distances, depending on where the heaviest bands set up.
Relatively warmer weather returns on Friday, but temperatures look to remain well below average for at least the next week.
Mountains will see moderate to heavy snow on Wednesday as well, and again on Friday night and Saturday, which is good news for the final weekend at Winter Park and Aspen Highlands, as well as at Copper Mtn and Vail, which both announced today that they are re-opening for the weekend!
Wednesday April 17 (afternoon)...
It's snowing steadily in Denver, but not really accumulating yet even though the temp is in the upper 20's. The snow will have to pick up in intensity (or temps continue to drop, which is very possible) to overcome the high mid April sun angle to really begin to accumulate, like what happened on Monday. One of the many reasons forecasting these Front Range spring snowstorms can be such a challenge. I'm a little more skeptical about that 4-8" at this point, but as we saw on Monday, a burst of heavy, wet snow can pile up very quickly. Higher elevations (foothills, mountains, Palmer Divide, etc.) outside of the city should still see good snowfall.
Thursday April 18...
This morning, the temp at DIA fell to 9F. This ties for the latest date a single digit temp has ever officially been reported in Denver! In addition, DIA has now recorded 70" of snow this season (compared to an average of 58.5"), which is pretty amazing considering that on Feb 15 we had only had 17" to date.
How long will the unseasonably cold weather last? Unfortunately for warm weather lovers, about another week. Relatively warmer temperatures tomorrow through Sunday, along with another decent shot of snow for the mountains on Saturday. Then, unseasonably cold and unsettled weather returns early next week, bringing more snow to the mountains, and yes, believe it or not, another chance of snow for Denver.
Looking long range... more seasonal temperatures may FINALLY return by Friday/Saturday of next week (the 26th/27th). Until then, think on the bright side... we've been in a drought and the late season snows have been and continue to be hugely beneficial for our water resources, and will also reduce wildfire danger this summer (notice I said reduce, not eliminate). Also, skiing/snowboarding conditions over the past week are the best they've been in two years.
How long will the unseasonably cold weather last? Unfortunately for warm weather lovers, about another week. Relatively warmer temperatures tomorrow through Sunday, along with another decent shot of snow for the mountains on Saturday. Then, unseasonably cold and unsettled weather returns early next week, bringing more snow to the mountains, and yes, believe it or not, another chance of snow for Denver.
Looking long range... more seasonal temperatures may FINALLY return by Friday/Saturday of next week (the 26th/27th). Until then, think on the bright side... we've been in a drought and the late season snows have been and continue to be hugely beneficial for our water resources, and will also reduce wildfire danger this summer (notice I said reduce, not eliminate). Also, skiing/snowboarding conditions over the past week are the best they've been in two years.
The mountain snowpack in northern Colorado has made an impressive comeback this spring, and is more than twice as deep compared to this time last year!
Northern Colorado snowpack as of April 18
Weekly summary in pictures
Copper Mountain's closing day (prior to its reopening) on April 14 was it's biggest 24-hr snow day of the season, with 13" falling overnight, making for an excellent powder day
Heavy snow falls in downtown Denver on the evening of Monday, April 15
Much of Denver woke up to nearly a foot of heavy, wet snow along with slick roads on Tues, April 16
Heavy snowfall throughout the week led to some amazing spring skiing conditions at Loveland Ski Area on April 20... unfortunately it also contributed to conditions responsible for a devastating avalanche accident on Loveland Pass the same afternoon
Current conditions and forecasts...
Avalanche kills five backcountry snowboarders on Loveland Pass
The heavy spring snows in the mountains have been beneficial in many ways, but have also created some very dangerous late season avalanche conditions... earlier in the week, a backcountry snowboarder was killed in an avalanche near Vail Pass. And then, yesterday, a large avalanche near Loveland pass took the lives of five experienced backcountry snowboarders... an awfully tragic situation, and the deadliest avalanche in Colorado since 1962. Due to the recent heavy snows coupled with persistent weak layers in the snowpack that formed during extended early winter droughts in November/early December and again in January, avalanche danger is significantly higher than usual for this late in the season, and is very much in a winter-like state even though the calendar says spring. The Colorado Avalanche Center is extending its daily forecasts for another week, through April 28, and is an extremely valuable resource for anyone traveling in the backcountry.
Brief break in an active weather pattern brings sunny skies and more seasonal temperatures Sunday
The most recent spring system brought several inches of snow to the mountains and scattered rain showers to the Denver area on Saturday, but in its wake, a brief period of high pressure has made for a pleasant Sunday, with seasonal temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and light winds. High clouds are already on the increase, though, ahead of the next low pressure system approaching Colorado... which looks to bring one last blast of winter.
Next system to bring yet another round of April snow to Denver
The unseasonably cold and snowy April will resume on Monday, as yet another low pressure system moves through Colorado, bringing snow to many areas as the upper level jet stream sits atop the state. The northern and central mountains will begin to see snow overnight Sunday into Monday morning, lasting through the day with moderate snow totals possible. As often is the case in the spring, the heaviest accumulations will depend on exactly where the heaviest bands set up... during the day it looks like areas from Vail Pass to Aspen/Independence Pass to Monarch Pass could see some of the highest totals during the day, with the Front Range mountains picking up a significant amount through Tuesday morning.
A few rain and snow showers will spread out into the foothills and plains as well, although temperatures across the Denver area will be mild on Monday morning. A cold front associated with the system will move through, however, and in the afternoon, winds will switch to northeasterly (upslope) and precipitation will begin across the Front Range metro area and foothills... starting in the northern foothills and Ft. Collins area, before spreading south later in the afternoon. Precipitation could start as rain, but falling temperatures will allow for a quick changeover to snow.
Snow will continue into the night hours, with 2-4" likely in the Denver area, but 3-6" (or more) possible in the southern and western sides of the metro area, and even more is likely in the foothills above 7,000 ft. The snow will mostly be over by Tuesday morning, and the high sun angle will quickly melt any snow off of the roads, but unseasonably cold temperatures will be left in its wake, with highs in Denver in the 30's on Tuesday, dropping into the upper teens Tuesday night.
The trough associated with the low pressure system moves south on Tuesday, bringing snow to Colorado Springs, Pueblo, and Walsenburg, with models indicating some very heavy snow totals for the Sangre de Christo Mountains and Wet Mountain Range, and good moisture across southeast Colorado. While northeast Colorado has seen extremely beneficial moisture this spring, southern and southeast Colorado is still suffering from a major drought, so this storm would be welcome news to the area.
More seasonal temperatures return to Denver later in the week, while periods of snow continue in the mountains
A period of northwest flow will commence across Colorado on Wednesday and Thursday (and perhaps beyond), bringing continued rounds of snow to the northern and central mountains, will Denver and eastern plains experience a warming and drying trend... finally! Temperatures rebound into the 50's after a cold start on Wednesday, and by the weekend will reach seasonal levels in the mid 60's under mostly sunny skies. In other words, it's going to feel like spring for the first time in quite a while for the Mile High City (currently, we stand a good chance of this month ending up as one of the top 5 coldest Aprils in Denver's recorded history).
In the mountains, decent snow accumulations will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday, mainly for the higher elevations, since temperatures will be warmer (more seasonal) compared to recent. Models are in disagreement over what happens next weekend, but snow showers will be possible once again Friday into next Saturday... looks like a classic spring set-up for most of the period with scattered snow showers interspersed with sunshine, and mostly light winds... not a bad thing.
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Major storm to dump heavy snow in the mountains overhight; extended period of unseasonably cold, unsettled, and snowy weather on tap for both the mountains and the Denver metro area this weekrea
WRF Model snow projections through noon Tuesday
Significant storm to bring closing day powder to many ski areas
Today has been the warmest day statewide since the past week of cold and unsettled weather, which saw Denver break three record lows (record low max of 22F on the 9th, record low of 9F on the 9th, record low of 6F on the 10th). Accompanying the warm temperatures, however, were the winds ahead of the incoming system... gusty winds east of the mountains, and very strong winds for the higher elevations.
A strong disturbance with an associated upper level jet streak (which enhances upward motion, and thus strongly enhances precipitation) is moving into Colorado from due west tonight, and is going to bring heavy snow to most of the major mountain ranges and ski areas, minus the Southern San Juans and Sangre de Christos. The Front Range mountains, Summit County, Gore Range Vail/Beaver Creek, Steamboat, Flat Tops, Aspen/Crested Butte, and the Northern San Juans are all in line for big snow Saturday night through Sunday morning, with some areas likely picking up a foot or more. Many areas are closing tomorrow, and they will be closing on a high note with an excellent powder day in store (and with it being April, less crowds than usual for a weekend day).
A few rain and snow showers for Denver and the Plains overnight into Sunday morning
As a cold front moving in from the Pacific (west) associated with the mountain snow storm reaches the Front Range urban region overnight, scattered rain and snow showers will develop across the northeastern plains, but nothing significant of note, with mostly dry but mostly cloudy conditions being prevalent across the metro area on Sunday. After a comfortable day with highs in the 60's on Saturday, temperatures will cool off 10-15 degrees across the metro area on Sunday, only reaching the low to mid 50's... however, much colder air is expected for the upcoming week.
Farther south, high winds are expected to develop across Colorado Springs, Pikes Peak, Pueblo, the Wet Mountains, and the Sangre de Christo Mountains. Gusts of 65 mph will be possible below 7,500 feet, with hurricane force gusts expected for the higher terrain, such as Pikes Peak.
Significant period of very active and unseasonably cold weather in store for Colorado this week
Dry conditions will return following the storm on Sunday, with the sun briefly coming out later in the afternoon in the mountains. However, a major storm cycle is set to begin overnight Sunday, as the upper level trough and associated jet stream max (otherwise known as a jet streak) park itself over Colorado for several days. A significant amount of moisture is expected to develop with this system, along with shots of unseasonably cold air for mid April.
The forecast is fairly complicated as to who will get the most snow and when exactly, but as of right now, periods of moderate to heavy snow are likely to develop in the mountains again overnight Sunday, and continuing through Wednesday night. A stronger cold front will also be arriving Sunday night, bringing much colder air to the state. Highs in Denver will only reach 40 or so on Monday, and it will be even colder by midweek. Upslope precipitation is expected to begin Monday night and continue through the day Wednesday. The extent of moisture and wind direction are still in question, but models are hinting at an extended period of snow for Denver from Monday night through Wednesday... a long enough period that significant snow totals will be possible. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be 30-35 degrees below average in the city, with record challenging cold possible again on Wednesday night.
Drier conditions return to the Front Range metro area on Thursday, but below average temperatures will continue through next weekend. Northwest flow could develop late next week and into next weekend, which could bring additional snow to the northern and central mountains, but this is still a ways in the future.
The details for next week aren't totally clear yet, but it's going to be an active and interesting system to follow, with significant snowfall accumulations possible for many parts of the state... this would be great news for water resources as we head into spring and summer.
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