The high pressure ridge responsible for the warm weather the past couple of days is flattening as a couple of weak disturbances move into the state. Convective rain and snow showers are developing over the northern mountains, with snow showers a good bet for the higher elevations in the northern and central mountains overnight. Spotty accumulations of a few inches will be possible depending on where the heaviest showers develop. Drier weather returns on Saturday, but skies will remain mostly cloudy for most of the state. Temperatures in Denver will be a touch cooler, with highs in the mid 60's.
Tomorrow afternoon and evening, there will be just enough moisture and instability for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop over northeastern Colorado, while a weak disturbance moving through will produce snow for most of the mountain areas overnight, with mostly light accumulations expected. Dry conditions should return once again on Sunday, with temperatures reaching the 60's once again for the Front Range metro area.
The big story, however, is a significant low pressure system expected to reach Colorado early next week, perhaps bringing big snow to the Front Range foothills. The exact track of the storm has yet to be determined, since it is still four days away, but if the low pressure center sets up in southeastern Colorado, a major precipitation event should occur. There will be plenty of moisture available with this system, and much colder air is expected to filter down from the North, so the ingredients will be there as long as a favorable storm track develops.
The most likely areas to receive heavy snowfall are in the foothills west of Denver (7,000 ft. and above), whereas Denver and the Front Range cities will be on the borderline. Temperatures ahead of the system are going to be warm which, combined with the high April sun angle, will likely limit snow accumulations for Denver. However, significantly colder air will be filtering in, so falling temperatures on Tuesday will likely lead to a changeover to snow at some point (after starting out as all rain or a rain/snow mix) but the exact temperatures as well as how late the storm lasts will be the determining factors. Should the storm persist into Tuesday night, when daytime heating and sunlight diminish, then significant snow accumulations for Denver would not be out of the question... however, the heaviest precipitation may already be over by then.
It wouldn't surprise me if there is a sharp cut-off line between heavy snow accumulations and light accumulations, even within the metro area itself (for example, higher elevations on the western and southern sides of the metro area, such as Golden, may could see noticeably more snowfall due to slightly colder temperatures and lesser effects from the urban heat island) It will certainly be an interesting system to follow in the coming days. As always with storms being forecasted several days in advance, changes in the storm track will likely occur, leading to exact changes in the forecast as the event nears. Snowfall accumulations can't be reliably predicted this far in advance either. Keep in mind that models will get a better handle on the storm once the system makes landfall off of the Pacific and more data is available (much less weather data is available over the oceans than on land).
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