Sunday, April 21, 2013

Looking back at a busy week, including heavy snow and Colorado's deadliest avalanche in 50 years. Active weather pattern to continue

Excellent late season riding conditions at Loveland Ski Area


I haven't posted in a while due to a very busy time at school, along with night events and ski days, so it's time to catch up after an extremely active weak weather-wise.  A series of spring storms brought a foot of snow to parts of Denver last Monday, boosted to the mountain snowpack significantly, and unfortunately, led to Colorado's deadliest avalanche in 50 years yesterday, up on Loveland Pass.  I've been posting updates on my blogs facebook page throughout the past week, so I'll include a summary of those below (scroll down lower if you want to see the current forecast and summary)...


Monday April 15 (morning)...

Closing day (for most ski areas) was a big powder day across Colorado! Sat night/Sun morning totals include... 15" Beaver Creek... 14" Monarch... 13" Copper Mtn and Vail... 12" Loveland, Silverton, Aspen, Breck, Eldora... 11" Aspen Highlands... 10" Winter Park and Snowmass

Another round of heavy snow began last night in the mountains and continues today, with Loveland reporting an additional 8" on their morning snow report! Heaviest snow today will fall in the north, including Steamboat and the Front Range mountains... while Vail/Summit County should also do well. It's going to be an active week with more heavy snow likely on Wednesday.

For the foothills and plains... Heaviest snow through Tuesday morning will fall farther north, including the Ft. Collins area up to Cheyenne (6-10"), as well as the Front Range foothills from Nederland to Estes Park. Denver will be a little too far south of the action and will see just a mix of rain and snow showers today, with light accumulation possible overnight (colder air and more snow possible on Wed, though). Boulder will get more than Denver but less than Ft. Collins... likely in the 3-7" range.


Monday April 15 (afternoon)...

Well, missed that forecast for Denver. Heavy snow amounted to 7" in Boulder this morning while Denver had virtually nothing. However, the snow band dropped just far enough south this afternoon, and it has been snowing very heavily in Denver over the last 3 hours. Downtown we already have about 5" I'm guessing


Tuesday April 16...

Heavy snow yesterday afternoon/evening amounted to 10-15" (about a foot near downtown Denver) from central Denver to Boulder to Ft. Collins, with nearly two feet in Estes Park. Snow came to an end overnight, with fog and freezing drizzle hanging around this morning. A few snow showers possible this afternoon, then a surge of cold air and another round of snow arrive on Wednesday.

The mountains got slammed yesterday as well. 24 hour ski resort totals include 15" at Loveland and 12" at Winter Park. And since Saturday night... Loveland has seen 35" and Winter Park 29"! SNOTEL sites indicate many areas from Aspen to Vail/Summit and especially the Front Range mountains picked up 15-20" yesterday! It might be mid April, but these are the best skiing conditions of the season (for places that are still open anyways). The moisture is also great news for our depleted water sources, as well as for the upcoming wildfire season.


Wednesday April 17 (morning)...

Winter in April continues... believe it or not, more snow is on the way for Denver. Precipitation may start out as freezing drizzle overnight into Wednesday morning (enough to ice over your windshields), then the cold front passes through by mid morning, bringing falling temps (into the low-mid 20's by afternoon), snow, and wind...

Denver and Boulder should see 4-8", with 6-14" possible in the foothills and Palmer Divide, and lower amounts around Ft. Collins. With the sporadic nature of this springtime snow event, accumulations may vary widely across short distances, depending on where the heaviest bands set up.

Relatively warmer weather returns on Friday, but temperatures look to remain well below average for at least the next week.

Mountains will see moderate to heavy snow on Wednesday as well, and again on Friday night and Saturday, which is good news for the final weekend at Winter Park and Aspen Highlands, as well as at Copper Mtn and Vail, which both announced today that they are re-opening for the weekend!


Wednesday April 17 (afternoon)...

It's snowing steadily in Denver, but not really accumulating yet even though the temp is in the upper 20's. The snow will have to pick up in intensity (or temps continue to drop, which is very possible) to overcome the high mid April sun angle to really begin to accumulate, like what happened on Monday. One of the many reasons forecasting these Front Range spring snowstorms can be such a challenge. I'm a little more skeptical about that 4-8" at this point, but as we saw on Monday, a burst of heavy, wet snow can pile up very quickly. Higher elevations (foothills, mountains, Palmer Divide, etc.) outside of the city should still see good snowfall.


Thursday April 18...

This morning, the temp at DIA fell to 9F. This ties for the latest date a single digit temp has ever officially been reported in Denver! In addition, DIA has now recorded 70" of snow this season (compared to an average of 58.5"), which is pretty amazing considering that on Feb 15 we had only had 17" to date.

How long will the unseasonably cold weather last? Unfortunately for warm weather lovers, about another week. Relatively warmer temperatures tomorrow through Sunday, along with another decent shot of snow for the mountains on Saturday. Then, unseasonably cold and unsettled weather returns early next week, bringing more snow to the mountains, and yes, believe it or not, another chance of snow for Denver.

Looking long range... more seasonal temperatures may FINALLY return by Friday/Saturday of next week (the 26th/27th). Until then, think on the bright side... we've been in a drought and the late season snows have been and continue to be hugely beneficial for our water resources, and will also reduce wildfire danger this summer (notice I said reduce, not eliminate). Also, skiing/snowboarding conditions over the past week are the best they've been in two years.

The mountain snowpack in northern Colorado has made an impressive comeback this spring, and is more than twice as deep compared to this time last year!

Northern Colorado snowpack as of April 18



Weekly summary in pictures


Copper Mountain's closing day (prior to its reopening) on April 14 was it's biggest 24-hr snow day of the season, with 13" falling overnight, making for an excellent powder day


Heavy snow falls in downtown Denver on the evening of Monday, April 15


Much of Denver woke up to nearly a foot of heavy, wet snow along with slick roads on Tues, April 16


Heavy snowfall throughout the week led to some amazing spring skiing conditions at Loveland Ski Area on April 20... unfortunately it also contributed to conditions responsible for a devastating avalanche accident on Loveland Pass the same afternoon




  Current conditions and forecasts...


Avalanche kills five backcountry snowboarders on Loveland Pass

The heavy spring snows in the mountains have been beneficial in many ways, but have also created some very dangerous late season avalanche conditions... earlier in the week, a backcountry snowboarder was killed in an avalanche near Vail Pass.  And then, yesterday, a large avalanche near Loveland pass took the lives of five experienced backcountry snowboarders... an awfully tragic situation, and the deadliest avalanche in Colorado since 1962.  Due to the recent heavy snows coupled with persistent weak layers in the snowpack that formed during extended early winter droughts in November/early December and again in January, avalanche danger is significantly higher than usual for this late in the season, and is very much in a winter-like state even though the calendar says spring.  The Colorado Avalanche Center is extending its daily forecasts for another week, through April 28, and is an extremely valuable resource for anyone traveling in the backcountry.


Brief break in an active weather pattern brings sunny skies and more seasonal temperatures Sunday

The most recent spring system brought several inches of snow to the mountains and scattered rain showers to the Denver area on Saturday, but in its wake, a brief period of high pressure has made for a pleasant Sunday, with seasonal temperatures, mostly sunny skies, and light winds.  High clouds are already on the increase, though, ahead of the next low pressure system approaching Colorado... which looks to bring one last blast of winter.


Next system to bring yet another round of April snow to Denver 

The unseasonably cold and snowy April will resume on Monday, as yet another low pressure system moves through Colorado, bringing snow to many areas as the upper level jet stream sits atop the state.  The northern and central mountains will begin to see snow overnight Sunday into Monday morning, lasting through the day with moderate snow totals possible.  As often is the case in the spring, the heaviest accumulations will depend on exactly where the heaviest bands set up... during the day it looks like areas from Vail Pass to Aspen/Independence Pass to Monarch Pass could see some of the highest totals during the day, with the Front Range mountains picking up a significant amount through Tuesday morning.

A few rain and snow showers will spread out into the foothills and plains as well, although temperatures across the Denver area will be mild on Monday morning.  A cold front associated with the system will move through, however, and in the afternoon, winds will switch to northeasterly (upslope) and precipitation will begin across the Front Range metro area and foothills... starting in the northern foothills and Ft. Collins area, before spreading south later in the afternoon.  Precipitation could start as rain, but falling temperatures will allow for a quick changeover to snow.

Snow will continue into the night hours, with 2-4" likely in the Denver area, but 3-6" (or more) possible in the southern and western sides of the metro area, and even more is likely in the foothills above 7,000 ft.  The snow will mostly be over by Tuesday morning, and the high sun angle will quickly melt any snow off of the roads, but unseasonably cold temperatures will be left in its wake, with highs in Denver in the 30's on Tuesday, dropping into the upper teens Tuesday night.  

The trough associated with the low pressure system moves south on Tuesday, bringing snow to Colorado Springs, Pueblo, and Walsenburg, with models indicating some very heavy snow totals for the Sangre de Christo Mountains and Wet Mountain Range, and good moisture across southeast Colorado.  While northeast Colorado has seen extremely beneficial moisture this spring, southern and southeast Colorado is still suffering from a major drought, so this storm would be welcome news to the area.


More seasonal temperatures return to Denver later in the week, while periods of snow continue in the mountains

A period of northwest flow will commence across Colorado on Wednesday and Thursday (and perhaps beyond), bringing continued rounds of snow to the northern and central mountains, will Denver and eastern plains experience a warming and drying trend... finally!  Temperatures rebound into the 50's after a cold start on Wednesday, and by the weekend will reach seasonal levels in the mid 60's under mostly sunny skies.  In other words, it's going to feel like spring for the first time in quite a while for the Mile High City (currently, we stand a good chance of this month ending up as one of the top 5 coldest Aprils in Denver's recorded history).  

In the mountains, decent snow accumulations will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday, mainly for the higher elevations, since temperatures will be warmer (more seasonal) compared to recent.  Models are in disagreement over what happens next weekend, but snow showers will be possible once again Friday into next Saturday... looks like a classic spring set-up for most of the period with scattered snow showers interspersed with sunshine, and mostly light winds... not a bad thing.

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