Saturday, February 16, 2013

Dry and milder (but breezy) for Saturday; light snow for the mountains Sunday night; active pattern for late next week

Powder riding at Mary Jane/Winter Park on Friday Feb. 15


Northwest flow brings great snow conditions to the northern mountains

The Wednesday-Friday storm system this week brought excellent skiing conditions to many areas of northern Colorado.  Thursday and Friday were probably the best powder days since 2011 for many ski areas.  There was no one single big dump, but a few days of consistently light, dry snow added up for many areas.  Steamboat, Winter Park, Breckenridge, and Vail have all been awesome for the past couple of days, with a foot+ reported over a 2-3 day period at these places, and many of these mountains actually skied much deeper.  For instance, the upper mountain at Steamboat, Mary Jane at Winter Park, and Blue Sky Basin at Vail tend to receive more snow in these types of systems than what you see on the ski reports.  I was fortunate enough to ski at Winter Park yesterday from open to close, and it was easily my best day since April 2011.  The snow conditions at Mary Jane were just flat out awesome.

Unfortunately, weekend warriors who were not able to take off of work probably missed out on most of the fun.  Plenty of powder stashes will remain in the trees this weekend for the above-mentioned areas, but a lot of the main areas will be tracked out, and of course, with it being President's Day weekend, the ski resorts are going to be a zoo.  Loveland, A-Basin, and Eldora would be better bets for fewer crowds this weekend, but these areas are also getting hammered by high winds today and Sunday.  Loveland Pass, for instance, has already seen winds gusting to nearly 60 mph today.

This would be a good weekend to hit the backcountry, with awesome snow totals for many areas, but you'll definitely want to stick to lower-angle, avalanche-safe terrain thanks an unstable snowpack.  Additionally, high winds will also make backcountry skiers/riders want to stay below treeline.  It never ceases to amaze me how many tracks I see on avalanche-prone slopes near Berthoud Pass, even with a "Considerable" rated avalanche danger.  At any rate, 2-3 day snow totals (estimates for remote-sensored SNOTEL stations) for some of the backcountry areas include 25.5" at Buffalo Pass (Park Range, near Steamboat) and 16" at both Berthoud Pass and Cameron Pass.  The new snow is low density, and very powdery as well.  


Much warmer weather returns to Denver

It's a beautiful day in the Mile High city today, with temperatures in the mid 50's and clear skies, although it is quite breezy thanks to a downslope wind off the mountains (which is partly responsible for the warmer temps).  Tonight, temperatures will be relatively mild for February, with low temperatures in the city in the upper 20's, with higher values near the foothills (Golden, Boulder, etc.) where the stronger downsloping winds will keep temperatures milder.  Out on the eastern plains, however, the warm downsloping winds will have less of an effect, so temperatures will be colder (upper teens to low 20's).

Tomorrow, temperatures will be mild once again, reaching the upper 50's in the city and points east (lower 50's for Boulder-Golden-Morrison, etc.).  Clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon, though, ahead of the next system moving into Colorado later that night.  A cold front will move through Sunday night, and while it will mostly stay dry across the metro area, temperatures will be about 15 degrees colder for highs on Monday.


Light snow for most mountain areas (along and west of the divide) Sunday night

A weak storm system will move through Colorado tomorrow evening and overnight, producing a round of snow showers for most areas, though Steamboat and the Park Range will likely be favored.  Most areas will only see a couple of inches, but heavier bands could cause a few surprises for some places.  Nothing to get too excited about, but even a few inches of snow is nice to freshen up the slopes.  

Active pattern sets up across the West by midweek

Mid to late next week continues to look very good for Colorado (along with the rest of the west) as far as snow potential goes.  It looks like the next storm system will reach the state by Wednesday, initially producing good snow for the San Juans, and then the northern and central mountains should get in on the action.  Looking at the medium to long range models, the stormy pattern should continue through at least Sunday, with snow chances for the mountains every day between then (no details yet and who exactly gets snow each day).  This is great news for the ski resorts.  It'll be interesting to see how things pan out later in the week as we get closer to the event, but hopefully most areas will be in good shape again by next weekend.  After a bone dry January for the ski resorts, February sure has been an improvement.










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