Major Winter Storm for Eastern Colorado Wednesday night; Denver now in line to pick up 6+ inches

Satellite image shows the storm moving into the Western U.S. as of 10:30 pm MST Tuesday

WRF Model forecasted snowfall totals through Thursday night

A major winter storm is going to hit Colorado tomorrow, dumping heavy snow across eastern Colorado beginning late tomorrow afternoon and lasting through Thursday morning.  The eastern plains are going to receive the heaviest snowfall, with up to two feet possible in Kansas and Nebraska (see the map above).  But thanks to a slight shift in the projected storm track, it now appears that Denver is going to get in the action as well, with six inches or more possible in the city.  In fact, less than an hour ago, the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch for Denver... believe it or not, this is the first Winter Storm Watch/Warning issued for the city this winter.  

The heaviest snow amounts in the metro area will actually be along and east of I-25, extending south toward the Palmer Divide.  The NWS watch is calling for 6-8" of snow for these areas of the metro area, with the models showing around the same amounts over the past couple of runs.  I think the higher elevations of the Palmer Divide may see closer to 10", though. The higher elevation western sections of the metro area are not likely to receive the most snow from this storm as is often the case, due to the farther east location of the storm, and less upslope precipitation enhancement from the elevation rise as a result.  Colorado Springs is also under a Winter Storm Watch, with 4-7" expected to fall there.  The drive on I-25 between Denver and Colorado Springs will be nasty tomorrow evening, especially over the Palmer Divide.  Farther north, areas from Boulder to Ft. Collins are expected to see 3-5".

Wednesday Morning - Snow for the Southern Mountains

Snowfall will first reach Colorado overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning for the southern mountains.  Winds will be from the south, so the San Juans will pick up the most snow initially along with the Sangre de Christos farther east.  Under southerly winds, Wolf Creek and the southern San Juans should get the most snow, with models generally showing 8-12", while the Silverton/Red Mountain Pass area will likely see 4-8", while farther east the Sangre de Christos should do well, with 6-12" possible.

The southerly winds will block most of the moisture from reaching mountain ranges north of the San Juans, but thanks in part to the overall storm energy with this system, the air is going to be unstable over most of the mountain areas, so pop-up snow showers are likely to occur across most of the mountain areas, with spotty accumulations of a few inches possible in some areas, along with the possibility of thundersnow with some of these snow showers.  

Wednesday Afternoon/Evening - Snow spreads into Denver Metro and Eastern Colorado

As the center of the low pressure tracks into southeastern Colorado Wednesday afternoon, snow will spread into eastern Colorado, and as winds begin to switch to northeasterly, we'll see wrap-around snow bands begin to affect the metro area.  High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 30's in the city (after a morning low in the mid 20's), but temperatures will quickly drop as precipitation moves into the area.  Right now, it looks like the snow could begin around 5:00 or 6:00 p.m., but if it comes any earlier it could certainly have an effect on the afternoon rush hour.

Farther east, heavier snow will fall, with 6-12" expected from Limon to Ft. Morgan to Sterling.  Even higher totals are possible farther east toward the Kansas border, in places like Burlington and Cheyenne Wells, where some areas could see more than a foot.  Areas on the plains may actually see precipitation begin as freezing rain, but the changeover to snow should occur fairly quickly.  Winds will also be an issue on the plains as usual, leading to blowing and drifting snow and possible whiteout conditions, although wind forecasts aren't high enough to warrant any blizzard advisories yet.

Snow should last through Thursday morning, when the storm will exit to the northeast, bringing huge snow totals to Kansas and Nebraska (and eventually Iowa) thereafter.

Snow chances for the mountains behind the main storm; another mountain snow storm possible this weekend

This is a very complex storm system, and as a result, the snowfall forecast for the mountains is very complicated with this system with inconsistency in model runs.  Wednesday night into Thursday, it looks like wrap-around snow bands from the main storm will extend into the northern and western mountains.  The latest model run shows the snow bands dropping further south with westerly winds bringing significant snow to the Grand Mesa, Vail/Beaver Creek, and Aspen/Elk Range region, while mostly missing out on Steamboat and the Front Range mountains.  However, with the wrap-around effect from the main system, there will likely be some northwest flow involved, so I think the northern areas will do better than what the models are showing.

At any rate, it looks like moisture will lag behind the main storm and cause snow to fall over parts of the Colorado mountains through early Friday.  Details on mountain snowfall late this week will hopefully be a little more clear tomorrow, but as of now, I'm expecting areas of north and central Colorado to do well.

Looking farther ahead, another storm should bring snow to the mountains on Saturday night and Sunday, possibly favoring the northern and central mountains (though it's still too early for details).  Then, it looks we could see another couple of storms next week as the active pattern continues.