Possible storm tracks for Colorado late this week into early next week
Brisk winds and seasonably chilly temperatures continued across the state on Tuesday, with a 56 mph wind gust recorded in Boulder and a 63 mph wind gust recorded on Berthoud Pass. Highs in the Front Range cities ranged from the upper 40's to low 50's, which is slightly below average for this time of year, while highs in the mountains ranged from the teens (above 11,000 ft.) to the 30's (valleys). An active weather pattern is on the way, with the first storm reaching the mountains Wednesday night, and a stretch of unseasonably cold temperatures on tap statewide for this weekend into next week.
Wednesday - the calm before the first storm
Temperatures will warm up 5-10 degrees from the day before across the Front Range on Wednesday, but clouds will be on the increase as a low pressure system approaches Colorado from the west. Highs will reach the upper 50's across the Front Range cities and eastern plains, and the upper 40's to low 50's for the foothills. Winds will be much calmer across most of the Denver metro area, although breezy conditions are still expected across the eastern plains as well as the foothills just east of the Indian Peaks, and to a lesser extent, the Colorado Springs area.
First storm arrives Wednesday night, favoring the Central Mountains
The first in a series of storms over a several day period will reach Colorado late Wednesday afternoon/evening behind WSW winds, bringing moderate to significant snow accumulations to much of the mountain regions. The Elk Range, Grand Mesa, Beaver Creek/Vail, and Northern San Juan Range will be favored the most, but good snowfall will be possible across most mountain ranges through Thursday afternoon before the storm exits.
On Thursday evening, a cold front associated with the storm system will pass through northeastern Colorado, bringing a round of precipitation to the northeastern Plains, and possibly the Denver metro area as well. Precipitation will mainly be in the form of rain, at least initially, but a switchover to wet snow will be possible into the nighttime hours.
Much colder temperatures to arrive on Saturday, along with snow for the Front Range
After the first storm exits, a stronger low pressure system will develop over Colorado beginning on Friday, bringing in a very cold (for late March) airmass from the north, along with ample moisture from the east. The result is that snow will likely develop east of the Continental Divide, including Denver and Boulder. Models are beginning to show some consistency with this storm, but it is still several days away so it is too early to speculate on how much of an impact it will have, who will get the most snow, and what kind of snow accumulation amounts to expect.
Moist, northwest flow pattern expected to develop later in the weekend for the mountains
Following the Front Range storm on Saturday, several days of orographically-enhanced (i.e. terrain-induced) snow behind northwest winds will be possible for the northern and central mountains, which would be excellent news for ski resorts. This forecast is even farther out in advance than Saturday's storm, though, so it is only a possibility at this point, but if the forecasted events in the coming days verify, then the likelihood of a northwesterly flow pattern developing would be fairly high based on past experiences.
I request snowfall ranges. If you're way off, it will be understood, for the far-out projection, especially considering how far off day-of predictions have been.
ReplyDeleteHa, the Front Range storms can certainly be tricky to forecast as I have learned! Details on the upcoming storm should be a little clearer by tomorrow night, but for now it looks like Friday night into Saturday morning is when Denver will see snow (possibly starting as rain Friday evening). Since you asked for a snowfall range, I'll go with 3-8 inches for now... but my answer could change by tomorrow evening.
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