Fresh tracks in the James Peak Wilderness (3/2/13)
A potent storm is moving through the Colorado mountains west of the Continental Divide tonight, and is going to pack a much larger punch than previously thought a couple of days ago. The northern and central mountains are going to be favored, with double digit snowfall totals possible in some areas. In particular, the Aspen/Crested Butte, Steamboat, Vail, and Front Range mountain regions are expected to do the best with this storm, although most areas of the mountains will see accumulating snowfall, with the possible exception of the Southern San Juans and the Sangre de Christos (although even these areas should see some light accumulations). The duration of the storm isn't expected to be all that long, but there is a lot of moisture and energy present that will allow for heavy snow to fall through Monday morning... yes, Monday is going to be a powder day for many areas. Take a look at the WRF model snowfall prediction map for this storm... while not perfect, it gives a good general idea of where the heaviest snow should fall.
WRF Model Snowfall forecast - Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
Snow-to-liquid ratios are going to be a little bit lower for most places compared to recent, due to warmer temperatures and higher moisture content in the snow as a result. Over the weekend, temperatures warmed up significantly, not only in Denver, but also in the mountain areas. As you'll see in the weather data below, many of the mountain valleys topped 40 degrees on Saturday, while even some of the passes got above freezing. South facing areas and lower elevations saw snow conditions become heavily sun affected, while shaded northerly aspects remained cold and powdery. This is nothing unusual now that it's March, as the higher sun angle begins to have a much greater effect on exposed southern faces. Also not unusual in March is the abrupt switches between winter and spring, which is what is going to be occurring over the next week.
Cooler temperatures for Denver on Monday, but little if any snow
Temperatures warmed up quite a bit in the Front Range cities over the weekend, with many areas reaching the mid 50's to lower 60's both days, melting most of the snow on the ground. Breezy winds and mild temperatures are persisting this evening, but a cold front is going to pass through tonight, dropping temperatures and perhaps bringing a few snowflakes to the city, though it will mostly remain dry down here as winds are heavily favoring areas west of the Continental Divide for precipitation. Temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow, only topping out around 40 in the city, and in the 30's for the foothills. Clouds and gusty winds will make for a pretty chilly Monday, and once skies clear, overnight temperatures will fall into the teens for most areas. However, the cool-down will be brief as warmer temperatures return on Tuesday (see below).
Spring-like weather arrives by midweek
A ridge of high pressure is going to move into Colorado immediately following the mountain snowstorm, bringing clear skies and spring-like temperatures. After a chilly start on Tuesday morning, highs will reach the low 50's in Denver on Tuesday afternoon. In the mountains, many areas will start out close to zero on Tuesday morning, but will abruptly rise into the low 40's at the base areas of ski resorts on Tuesday afternoon, and 30's even at and above treeline. In other words, skiers and boarders should hit the fresh powder while they can on Monday. Spring-like conditions will persist through Thursday, with highs reaching the 60's in Denver on both Wednesday and Thursday. It will be a beautiful week in the city, but as often is the case in March, potentially big changes loom for next weekend...
Longer Range - models hinting at a big Front Range snowstorm for next weekend
Let me start out by saying that model forecasts for a week in advance only give a general idea of weather over a region, and details can't be predicted until a few days in advance. However, models are consistently showing a strong low pressure system moving slowly across the Four Corners region as a major dip in the jet stream occurs, southward into Arizona and New Mexico, with the European Model (typically the most reliable) in particular favoring a scenario that would bring heavy snow initially to the San Juan Mountains, followed by a multi-day snow event for the Front Range, including Denver. This is still nearly a week out, so it's way too early to speculate on any specifics (not in any way guaranteeing a Denver snowstorm this far out, though it is a possibility), but it will be something to keep an eye on throughout this week as we get closer to next weekend. Here is a look at where the European Model has the upper-level low pressure center for next Sunday. Southeast Colorado is generally an ideal location for low pressure centers if Denver and areas east of the Continental Divide are going to receive major snowfall.
European Model long-range forecast, Sunday March 10
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