Monday, March 11, 2013

What happened to Saturday's snow storm in Denver?

Snow falls at Wash Park in Denver on Sat, March 9


It's no secret to those in the Denver area that the weekend snow storm underperformed, with Saturday's 8-14" forecast by the National Weather Service turning into a general 4-6" for most of Denver.  While the storm wasn't exactly a bust (except for Ft. Collins, which basically saw nothing), with moderate (and at times, heavy) snow falling for most of the day, it certainly wasn't the big storm that many were expecting.

So what happened?  Borderline freezing temperatures, a warm ground, and the high March sun angle are mostly to blame.  Temperatures were hovering around 32-33 degrees when the storm began on Saturday morning, and held steady at about 30 for the remainder of the day.  So while, yes, 30 degrees is obviously cold enough for snow to accumulate, it was not cold enough to overcome the already warm ground combined with higher March sun angle, since all of the snow fell during the daytime hours.  As a result, much of the snow that fell melted and compacted, leading to slower accumulation rates... this made the difference between receiving 5 inches instead of a foot.  

Also, the storm moved out a little quicker than expected, with snowfall ending 2-3 hours earlier than forecasted.  This probably explains why some areas in the foothills received less snow than forecast, although some of these areas still ended up with a foot or more.  There is always a lot to be learned from these storms, so that we can get the forecast right for the next one.  At the very least, the Front Range did receive some much-needed moisture from this storm, although we could definitely use a few more storms this spring.

As for the weather today and this week, warmer temperatures are on the way, with a serious taste of spring arriving by midweek.  Highs in Denver will reach the 50's today, but clouds will move in to area as a weak system brushes Northern Colorado later today, bringing light snow to the northern mountains this evening.  The northeastern Plains may also receive some light snow tonight, but the precipitation will likely stay east of Denver.  After a relatively cool day (for mid March) on Tuesday behind the system, warm and sunny weather arrives on Wednesday lasting through the weekend.  It's going to be our first stretch of prolonged spring-like weather this year, with highs reaching the 60's in Denver each day, perhaps even hitting 70 by Thursday or Friday! 

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